Let us start with some good news. According to the latest State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World (SOFI) report, global hunger levels are finally declining, falling to 673 million people - one in 12 people globally - for the first time since 2019. But, while the overall progress is positive, driven by post-COVID recoveries in southern Asia and Latin America, the numbers in Africa have continued to rise. In Africa, hunger affects 307 million people, over 20% of the population, or one in five people. 

Global hunger levels decline, but hunger in Africa on the rise 

Source: SOFI, 2025 

The numbers leave no room for doubt: Africa is being left behind. This situation will continue unless additional efforts are made. And if no additional efforts are made, Africa will account for nearly 60% of the projected 512 million people that will be affected by hunger in 2030 – the deadline for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).  

Importantly, the theme of this year’s hunger report is food price inflation which has remained stubbornly high. This is particularly the case in Africa where it has far surpassed overall inflation: from 2.3% in 2020 to a peak of 13.6% in 2023. The poorest and most vulnerable countries have been hardest hit, peaking at 30%in May 2023. 

What is driving food price inflation? 

The global hunger report focuses on a few key drivers of food price inflation: high food and energy commodity prices, high levels of government spending during the pandemic, supply chain disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine, increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and a strong U.S. dollar. But, hidden in the sub-text of the report, is a less-often cited driver: market power. Specifically, the few companies with dominant positions in the market dictate prices and are increasingly charging excessive mark ups on the prices of basic goods from fertilizers and feed to flour, poultry, and eggs.  

This is the situation facing Africa. The extreme concentration of food and agricultural markets in Africa is a critically overlooked force driving up food insecurity and poverty, harming small producers, informal businesses, and consumers alike. Farmers are squeezed by the higher prices that they must pay for their supplies and the lower prices they receive when selling their products. Consumers also face high costs. In African cities, food prices are on average more than 30% higher compared with low- and middle-income countries in other parts of the world.  

Market concentration in Africa 

According to the World Bank, three out of the five main fertilizer companies operating in 24 countries across Africa have been involved in cartels and increasing prices to farmers. Researchers estimate that international collusion in potash and phosphate exports have driven up prices by 50-63%. The case of fertilizer in Malawi illustrates the problem where fertilizer prices are up to 3 times higher compared with world prices and around double the reasonable cost of importation (i.e 20% trader margins )(Figure 2). 

Figure 2: World vs. Malawi Fertilizer Prices (urea) 

Source: African Market Observatory and World Bank 

Note: For import costs and trader margin see COMESA/CCRED ‘Concentration, competition and market outcomes in fertiliser markets in East and Southern Africa’ CCRED Working Paper 2023/15 

The low maize harvest in Malawi in 2023 can be directly linked to the high price of fertilizer in 2022 which resulted in lower fertilizer usage. While many blamed the devastation caused by Cyclone Freddy for the low maize yields and subsequent rise in hunger, the cyclone is estimated to have impacted only 10% of crop production.   

The situation is similar in the soybean feed market. According to the African Market Observatory Price Tracker, traders earned excess margins of up to 91% in 2021, suppressing farmer prices in Malawi and Zambia, and increasing prices to feed buyers in the poultry sector in Kenya. 

A recent inquiry in the animal feed market conducted by the Competition Authority of Kenya (CAK) found that poultry and dairy farmers in Kenya are paying up to 40% more for animal feed compared with other markets such as South Africa, Brazil and Malaysia. This is costing consumers up to an additional USD 23 million on dairy, eggs and poultry. 

Using competition policy to reduce market concentration 

The use of a market inquiry is a powerful legal and research tool available to competition regulators to quantify potential anti-competitive conduct in a particular market and to ultimately take action to stop it. However, Africa remains a competition desert.  

A report  from the Shamba Centre for Food & Climate found that nearly half of countries in sub-Saharan Africa do not yet have competition laws or institutions in place. Only nine countries have competition laws and institutions that are more than 10 years old. The remainder have new laws and nascent competition authorities but lack sufficient information and resources to act effectively.  

African countries urgently need effective competitive regimes to address the high levels of concentration in agri-food markets that are driving up hunger and. Competition laws and policies, and the establishment of independent competition authorities, are the best institutional fixes for abuse of market power and its resulting consequences. 

To succeed, competition authorities in Africa urgently need economic, legal, and political support to make markets work better for producers and consumers. Stronger collaboration around improved data, research, analysis and advocacy with and for competition authorities in Africa would be an important contributor to getting Africa back on track.